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Chart of the Week
Aggressive Fed policy action has driven the majority of US equity market contraction to date. While calling the market bottom remains challenging, history suggests that monetary policy-induced recessions have seen peak-to-trough S&P 500 drawdowns of -22%, on median. Though no two tightening cycles are the same, we believe today’s starting point of macro strength may moderate further equity downside as rates begin to stabilize.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg, NBER.