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Chart of the Week
The US Treasury curve saw a 2s10s inversion as rates markets priced in accelerated Fed tightening. While an inverted yield curve has historically been a signal for recession, we believe the curve may be more prone to inversions today given low absolute yields, quantitative easing, and elevated inflation. The historical time lag between an inverted curve and a recession has ranged from 7-35 months. In that time, the S&P 500 continued to deliver positive returns on median.