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Chart of the Week
Deteriorating economic indicators have had strong track records of predicting recessions, but many have incorrectly warned of oncoming contractions. Soft and hard data hit their historical recessionary levels in 2022, but we believe some indicators may be over-signaling this time due to labor strength, consumer resilience, and cooling inflation. We believe universal and sustained weakness in economic and market signals may prove more reliable for recessionary calls.
Source: Bloomberg, FRED, Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of January 31, 2023.